NOAA: Hurricane Beryl Projected Path Update To Texas, Spaghetti Models

HOUSTON, Texas – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued an updated Public Advisory at 11 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, July 5, 2024, due to the presence of record-breaking Hurricane Beryl that has temporarily weakened into a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Beryl Projected Path   

Tropical Storm Beryl (formerly Tropical Depression Two and Invest 95L) is located 615 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, and is moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h). 

NHC forecasters say that a west-northwestward motion is expected during through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected expected to approach the Texas coast by late Sunday.

Hurricane Beryl Spaghetti Models 

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement that Beryl will move northwest over the Gulf of Mexico. 

However, there is a significant spread among the computer models (GFS-based American model, ECMWF European model, and UKMET model) after 24 hours with a projected landfall somewhere between Houston and Brownsville, Texas.

The latest guidance has again shifted to the right and is a little faster than the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions.  The new track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction, which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point.

Hurricane Beryl Strength

Beryl is a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), with higher gusts.  

Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday.  

Steady strengthening seems likely later in the weekend, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the Texas coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Hurricane Beryl Watches and Warnings 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to San Luis Pass, and the northeastern coast from mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to High Island.

Interests elsewhere in northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued for portions of this area on Saturday.

Hurricane Beryl Breaks Records in the Atlantic

Hurricane Beryl has broken several records for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin.

Beryl is the easternmost hurricane to form in the tropical Atlantic during June, beating the previous record set by the 1933 Trinidad hurricane.

Beryl is the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin, a title previously held by Hurricane Dennis on July 8, 2005. 

Beryl is the strongest June hurricane in terms of wind speed, outpacing Hurricane Audrey of 1957.

Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, overtaking the previous record set by Hurricane Emily on July 16, 2005.

Beryl also became the strongest July hurricane ever recorded.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.