NOAA: Tropical Storm Beryl Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

 

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, June 29, 2024, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Beryl, which is forecast to strengthen into Category 2 Hurricane Beryl over the Caribbean.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Beryl Projected Path

Tropical Storm Beryl (formerly Tropical Depression Two and Invest 95L) is located 820 miles east-southeast of Barbados and is moving to the west at 21 mph (33 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.  

On the official NHC forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical Storm Beryl Spaghetti Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement that Tropical Storm Beryl will move west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles. However, there is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance, especially after 72 hours.

The GFS-based (American model) guidance calls for the storm to continue west-northwestward, while the ECMWF (European model) and UKMET models show a more westward motion. The official NHC track forecast has been nudged southward based on the trends in the latest model runs.

Tropical Storm Beryl Strength

Tropical Storm Beryl has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone. 

The official NHC forecast calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a Major Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Tropical Storm Beryl Watches and Warnings 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Barbados, St Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Martinique, Tobago.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.