Colorado State University Forecasts Extremely Active 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA GOES Satellite Image of Hurricanes. Credit: NOAA

MIAMI, Florida - Researchers at Colorado State University are forecasting that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active due to a combination of an extremely warm Atlantic Ocean and a likely developing La Niña.

The forecast calls for 23 named storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th.

Of those 23 named storms, researchers expect 11 to become hurricanes and 5 to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

The forecast also increases the probability of major hurricanes making landfall on U.S. soil from the historical average of 43% to 62% for 2024. 

Regionally, the forecast predicts a 34% chance of a hurricane making landfall on the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (the average for the last century was 21%). 

A 42% landfall chance is also forecast for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast.

A 66% chance is predicted for the Caribbean (average is 47%).

According to CSU researchers , the 2024 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020.

“Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report. 

“This highlights the somewhat lower levels of uncertainty that exist with this outlook relative to our typical early April outlook.”