NOAA: 20% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Over North Florida

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, July 16, 2026, due to an area of low pressure that is expected to form in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane List is Bertha.

A low pressure area is forecast to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

NHC forecasters say that some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the southeastern United States early next week.

This system has a near 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a 20% chance within the next 7 days.

Meanwhile, a second area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands remain disorganized.

Some slow development is possible during the next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive environment, and further development is not expected.

NOAA forecasts a “below-normal” 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity is possible throughout July and typically increases as the season progresses toward its climatological peak in mid-September, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.