NOAA: 50% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Texas, Louisiana

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 PM Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, June 15, 2026, due to the presence of a system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days just off the coast of Texas and Louisiana.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane List is Arthur.

The system is a trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico that is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

NHC forecasters say that development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland.

However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding.

Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday.

This system has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a 50% chance within the next 7 days.

NOAA forecasts a “below-normal” 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity begins to pick up in late June, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.