NOAA: 30% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Texas, Louisiana

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, June 14, 2026, due to the presence of a system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days just off the coast of Texas and Louisiana.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane List is Arthur.

The system is a trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico that is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

NHC forecasters say that development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland and drifts northward over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas.

The system is then forecast to move northeastward and could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, where environmental conditions may support some development around midweek.

Regardless of formation chances, heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible across portions of eastern and southern Texas and Louisiana this week.

This system has a 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a 30% chance within the next 7 days.

NOAA forecasts a “below-normal” 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity begins to pick up in late June, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.