NOAA: 10% Chance Arthur Re-Forms Off Virginia, North Carolina

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 AM Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, June 18, 2026, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur.

Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, formed on June 17 from the earlier system near the Texas coast. It brought heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of southern and eastern Texas, Louisiana, and adjacent areas before weakening.

The system is now a trough of low pressure (the remnants of Arthur) located over the southeastern United States that is producing showers and thunderstorms.

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development on Friday or Saturday, as the system moves northeastward at around 15 mph and emerges offshore the east coast of the United States and into the Western Atlantic Ocean.

If this system redevelops into a tropical storm or hurricane, it would retain the name of Arthur on the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane List.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across portions of the Southeast United States during the next day or two.

This system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a 10% chance within the next 7 days.

NOAA forecasts a “below-normal” 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity begins to pick up in late June, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.