NOAA: Tropical Storm Sara Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 4 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Thursday, November 14, 2024, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Sara which is forecast to make landfall on Central America.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Sara Projected Path

Tropical Storm Sara (formerly Invest 99L and Tropical Depression 19) is located about 65 miles north-northwest of the Nicaragua-Honduras border and is moving to the west at 10 mph (17 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.  

A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.  

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. 

Tropical Storm Sara Computer Models 

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show Tropical Storm Sara meandering westward over the Caribbean during the next few days towards and over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Once the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the computer models diverge on whether the system will dissipate or continue towards Florida.

Both the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) show a weakened system moving towards Florida.

Tropical Storm Sara Strength

Tropical Storm Sara has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h), with higher gusts. 

Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone, mainly in the northern semicircle.

Tropical Storm Sara Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border,  and the Bay Islands of Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although peak hurricane season was September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity still remains through the end of November according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.