MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook update at 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday, November 13, 2024, due to the presence of Invest 99L that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days over the Caribbean.
If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Sara.
NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 99L Projected Path
Invest 99L (marked with a red shaded area) is a broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea that continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. Invest 99L is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week.
Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so.
A U.S Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Invest 99L tomorrow morning.
Invest 99L has an 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 90% chance within the next 48 hours.
Invest 99L 2024 Computer Models
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show Invest 99L meandering westward over the Caribbean during the next few days towards the Yucatan Peninsula.
Both the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) are in agreement with this track for the first 48 hours.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
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| NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency. |
Although peak hurricane season was September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity still remains through the end of November according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.
