MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook update at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, November 3, 2024, due to the presence of Invest 97L, which is likely to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours over the south-central Caribbean Sea.
If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Rafael.
NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 97L Projected Path
Invest 97L (marked with a red “X”) is a broad area of low pressure over the south-central Caribbean Sea that continues to produce showers and thunderstorms which are starting to show signs of organization.
NHC forecasters say that Invest 97L is expected to become a tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves generally northward toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba.
Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba during the next few days.
A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this system.
Invest 97L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 90% chance within the next 48 hours.
Invest 97L 2024 Computer Models
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in strong agreement during the first 48 hours that Invest 97L will move in a general northeast direction, then northward direction toward Jamaica and Cuba, before turning in a north-northwest direction toward Havana. The GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) show a similar track.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
 |
| NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency. |
Peak hurricane season was September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.