NOAA: Tropical Storm Milton Projected Path To Florida, Spaghetti Models

TAMPA, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Public Advisory at 5 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday,  October 5, 2024, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Milton over the Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to strengthen into Category 3 Hurricane Milton before making landfall on the west coast of Florida.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Milton Projected Path

Tropical Storm Milton (formerly Invest 92L and Tropical Depression 14) is located about 245 miles north of Vera Cruz, Mexico, and is moving to the north-northeast at 3 mph (6 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a slow east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday.  

On the official NHC forecast track, Milton is expected to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida

Peninsula by midweek.

Tropical Storm Milton Computer Models 

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in agreement during the first 48 hours that Tropical Storm Milton will move in a general eastward direction, then east-northeastward direction toward the Florida peninsula. Both the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European model) show a similar track.

The NHC track is slightly north of the previous track and is a little slower to be in better agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids.

Tropical Storm Milton Strength 

Tropical Storm Milton has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h), with higher gusts.

Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.  Milton is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and could become a major Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.