NOAA: Hurricane Milton Projected Path To Florida, Spaghetti Models

TAMPA, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Special Public Advisory Update at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, October 7, 2024, due to the presence of major Category 3 Hurricane Milton over the Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall on the west coast of Florida.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Milton Projected Path

Hurricane Milton (formerly Invest 92L and Tropical Depression 14) is located about 745 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, and is moving to the east-southeast at 8 mph (13 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that an eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.  

On the official NHC forecast track, Milton is expected to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Hurricane Milton Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in good agreement during the first 24 hours that Hurricane Milton will move in a general eastward direction, then east-northeastward direction toward the Florida peninsula. Both the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European model) show a similar track.

However, there remains significant differences in both the location and timing of landfall. The UKMET (U.K. model) is fastest and farthest to the east, the GFS is slower and much farther north, and the CMC  (Canadian model) is the slowest and keeping the storm offshore more than 24 hours longer than the other models.  

The new official NHC forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west coast between 60-72 hours in best agreement with the ECMWF and the multimodel consensus. 

Hurricane Milton Strength

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton is a major Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h), with higher gusts.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Further strengthening is expected, and Milton is forecast to become an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane later today and maintain that intensity for the next couple of days.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.