HOUSTON, Texas – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, September 9, 2024, due to the presence of Potential Tropical Cyclone 6, which is forecast to strengthen into Hurricane Francine on Wednesday.
NOAA National Hurricane Center Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 Projected Path
Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 (formerly Invest 91L) is located about 545 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, and is moving to the north-northwest at 5 mph (7 km/h).
NHC forecasters say that a slow northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday.
On the official NHC forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 Computer Models
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in good agreement during the first 48 hours that the system will move in a general north-northwest direction. After 48 hours, there is more divergence in the track models, but they show a similar northeast curve toward the Louisiana coast by Wednesday.
The track guidance this cycle shifted east, with the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European model) notably on the east side of the guidance envelope.
The NHC official track forecast has again been nudged eastward in the 48-72 hour period, but not quite as far east as the ECMWF and corrected consensus model predictions.
It should be noted that confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal since the system lacks a well-defined center.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 Strength
Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), with higher gusts.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center of the tropical cyclone.
Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by Wednesday.
If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Francine.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 Watches and Warnings
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, and from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield.
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NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data. |
