MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook update at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 22, 2024, due to the presence of a system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
The system (marked with a red “X”) is a very broad area of low pressure that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America.
NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days.
A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature.
Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.
This system has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 40% chance within the next 48 hours.
If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Helene.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
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| NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency. |
Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.