NHC: 50% Chance Tropical Storm Helene Forms Off Florida, Georgia, Carolinas – Invest 95L Spaghetti Models

 

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 15, 2024, due to the presence of Invest 95L located off the coast of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Helene.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 95L Projected Path

Invest 95L is a non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a couple of hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. that is producing winds to gale force north of its center (marked with an orange “X”). 

NHC forecasters say that Invest 95L is expected to move northwestward or northward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream toward the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina, and it could become a subtropical or tropical storm during the next day or two if the associated front dissipates and showers and thunderstorms become sufficiently organized.

Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, the low is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rains with the potential for flash flooding, coastal flooding, and dangerous beach conditions to portions of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast during the next couple of days, and interests in these areas should monitor the system’s progress. 

This system has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 50% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 95L 2024 Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in poor agreement during the first 48 hours that the system will move in a general northwest direction before making landfall somewhere on either South Carolina or North Carolina.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.