MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, August 14, 2024, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Ernesto, which is forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane far off of Florida’s east coast.
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Ernesto Projected Path
Tropical Storm Ernesto (formerly Invest 98L and Potential Tropical Cyclone 5) is located about 125 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and is moving to the northwest at 16 mph (26 km/h).
NHC forecasters say that a turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday.
On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the north of Puerto Rico through today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday.
Tropical Storm Ernesto Computer Models
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in strong agreement that Tropical Storm Ernesto will move northwest away from Puerto Rico, then turn northeast towards Bermuda.
However, there is some spread between the models after the system passes near or over Bermuda with most models showing a sharper turn to the northeast further out over the open Atlantic.
The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the latest GFS (American model), ECMWF (European model), and consensus models.
Tropical Storm Ernesto Strength
Tropical Storm Ernesto has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h), with higher gusts.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center of the cyclone.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ernesto is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale later today and a major hurricane in a couple of days.
Tropical Storm Ernesto Watches and Warnings
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for: British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra.
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| NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency. |
Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, the beginning of August is when tropical storm and hurricane activity begins to pick up, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.