NOAA: Hurricane Debby Track To Florida, Spaghetti Models

 

TAMPA, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, August 4, 2024, due to the presence of Hurricane Debby, which is tracking toward the Gulf Coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

Hurricane Debby NHC Projected Path

Hurricane Debby (formerly Invest 97L and Tropical Depression Four) is located 100 miles west-northwest of Tampa, Florida, and is moving to the north at 12 mph (19 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected on Monday and Tuesday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.  

Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by  Tuesday night.

Hurricane Debby Strength 

Hurricane Debby is a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

Additional strengthening is likely before Debby reaches the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday.  Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland.

Hurricane Debby Computer Models  

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement that Hurricane Debby will turn north-northeast toward Florida's Big Bend.

The track guidance shows decreasing forward speed and a turn to the east in 24-48 hours.  

Some of the computer models show the cyclone moving temporarily over the Atlantic in the 72-hour time frame, and so does the official NHC forecast.

Hurricane Debby Watches and Warnings 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay, and for the Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, South Carolina.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Florida coast from Englewood northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Florida coast from Yankeetown to Indian Pass.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande, from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, and from Ponte Vedra Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although peak hurricane season isn't until September 10, the end of July is when tropical storm and hurricane activity begins to pick up, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.