NHC: Tropical Storm Debby Track To Florida, Spaghetti Models

TAMPA, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, August 4, 2024, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Debby, which is tracking toward the Gulf Coast of Florida and forecast to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane.

Tropical Storm Debby NHC Projected Path

Tropical Storm Debby (formerly Invest 97L and Tropical Depression Four) is located 120 miles west of Tampa, Florida, and is moving to the north-northwest at 12 mph (19 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected on Monday and Tuesday

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast around midday Monday.  

Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Debby Strength 

Tropical Storm Debby has maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center of the tropical cyclone.

Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland.

Tropical Storm Debby Computer Models 

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement that Tropical Storm Debby will turn north-northeast toward Florida's Big Bend.

The track guidance shows decreasing forward speed and a turn to the east in 24-48 hours.  

Some of the computer models show the cyclone moving temporarily over the Atlantic in the 72-hour time frame, and so does the official NHC forecast.

Tropical Storm Debby Watches and Warnings 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay; and the Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Florida coast from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass. 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown. 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the  Florida coast from south of the Suwannee River to Bonita Beach, from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, and from Ponte Vedre Beach to the Savannah River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina. 

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although peak hurricane season isn't until September 10, the end of July is when tropical storm and hurricane activity begins to pick up, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.