NOAA: New System May Develop Into Tropical Cyclone Off Florida

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, has issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, June 16, 2024, due to the presence of two systems that may form into tropical cyclones within the next 7 days.

The first system is an area of low pressure that could form by the middle part of next week a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas (marked in yellow).

NHC forecasters say that some slow development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves westward or west-northwestward. 

This system has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a near 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

The second system is a large area of disturbed weather that has formed over Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea (marked in orange).

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

The second system has a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 50% chance within the next 48 hours.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America.

These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

According to NOAA, most June storms begin in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA Prevailing Atlantic Hurricane Tracks June

If either of these systems develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the first name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Alberto.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.