NOAA: Invest 92L Nears Florida, Spaghetti Models

 

JACKSONVILLE, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, June 21, 2024, due to the presence of two systems that may form into tropical cyclones within the next 7 days.

The first system, dubbed Invest 92L (marked with an orange "X" near Florida), is a small area of low pressure located about 150 miles east-southeast of Jacksonville, Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve aircraft is currently investigating the system to determine if the low has a well-defined surface circulation. 

NHC forecasters say that although environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for some additional development, Invest 92L could become a short-lived tropical depression as the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. 

Invest 92L is expected to reach the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia by tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress. 

This system has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 50% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 92L 2024 Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 92L will move west-northwestward across the western Atlantic towards the northeast coast of Florida and Georgia coast. Then hook to the northeast toward South Carolina after making landfall.

The second system (marked in orange near Mexico) is a broad area of low pressure that is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today.

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. 

The second system has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 50% chance within the next 48 hours.

NOAA Prevailing Atlantic Hurricane Tracks June

If either of these systems develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Beryl.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.