NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Melissa 2025 Projected Path
MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center issued an Intermediate Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, October 25, 2025, for Tropical Storm Melissa, which strengthened from Invest 98L earlier this week while moving westward over the central Caribbean Sea.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.
Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system as watches could be required for portions of eastern Cuba later today.
Tropical Storm Melissa is located about 160 miles (260 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and about 235 miles (375 km) southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti and is moving to the west-northwest at 1 mph (2 km/h).
NHC forecasters say that steering currents will remain weak for the next 3 days, and Melissa is forecast to drift westward through Sunday night to the south of Jamaica. A sharp but slow turn toward the north is expected Monday and Monday night.
On the official NHC forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone is expected to make landfall on Jamaica in about 72 hours.
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show a small cross-track spread, with some speed differences.
A large majority of the latest reliable track models show Melissa making landfall on Jamaica in about 72 hours.
41 of the 50 Google DeepMind ensemble members show Melissa at category 4 or 5 strength by Monday afternoon.
There is considerable uncertainty in the track beyond the next couple of days. Recent trends indicate uncertainty on how close the core will get to Haiti and Jamaica, potentially reducing the chance of direct landfall but still posing risks of heavy rain and coastal impacts.
The official NHC forecast track is a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) and the HCCA solution.
Tropical Storm Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h), with higher gusts.
Rapid intensification is forecast to begin over the next 24 hours, with the system forecast to become a hurricane shortly and a major hurricane by Sunday.
NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
The peak of hurricane season occurs in September and early October, with historical data from NOAA and the National Weather Service showing increased tropical storm and hurricane activity during this period.
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