NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook for September 24, 2025.
MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, due to the presence of Invest 93L located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands and Invest 94L located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
If Invest 93L and Invest 94L develop into tropical storms or hurricanes, the next names on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane List are Humberto and Imelda.
Invest 93L is an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands that has become better defined with showers and thunderstorms becoming better organized this afternoon (marked with a red shaded area on the right).
NHC forecasters say that if these trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression or storm later today or tonight.
Invest 93L is expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
This system has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 90% chance within the next 48 hours.
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement during the first 48 hours that the system will move west-northwestward across the western tropical Atlantic.
After 48 hours, the models show the system curving northward, directed by environmental conditions and steering winds north of the Caribbean and away from the U.S.
Recent model runs, including the European model (ECMWF) and its AI variant (AIFS), along with the GFS (American model) and CMC, indicate consistent development. Forecasts suggest Invest 93L could become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) in the central Atlantic within 7-9 days, with development into a tropical depression or storm by the weekend. The system is expected to remain over open waters. Intensity models vary, but many suggest it could reach hurricane strength, with some ensembles indicating major hurricane status under favorable conditions like warm sea surface temperatures.
Recent model runs show stronger development signals, with ensembles indicating a primary track recurving north into the open Atlantic, east of the U.S. East Coast. However, some uncertainty remains, and impacts cannot be totally ruled out. Outlier models suggest potential tracks closer to Bermuda, which should monitor the system. Spaghetti models show the system mainly curving out to sea, with possible tracks nearing the U.S. East Coast or close to North Carolina by the weekend, though interaction with Invest 94L may affect development.
Overall, the path and intensity remain uncertain due to model divergence, but the current consensus leans strongly toward recurvature away from major U.S. land impacts, and it is too early to determine specific effects on Florida or other U.S. areas.
Invest 94L is a tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea that continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms (marked with a red shaded area on the left).
NHC forecasters say that this wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and across the Dominican Republic beginning tonight.
Invest 94L is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development in a few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas.
Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
This system has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 30% chance within the next 48 hours.
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement during the first 48 hours that the system will move west-northwestward near or over Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Southeastern Bahamas.
After 48 hours, the models show the system curving northward, directed by environmental conditions and steering winds north of the Caribbean and away from the U.S., but the Carolinas cannot be ruled out.
Recent model runs, including the European model (ECMWF) and its AI variant (AIFS), along with the GFS (American model) and CMC, indicate consistent development into a tropical depression.
Spaghetti models suggest the system may mainly curve out to sea, with some indicating moisture could approach Florida, and potential tracking near the mid-Atlantic coast from the Carolinas to Virginia. Forecasts are uncertain due to a lack of consensus among computer models, with possibilities ranging from a significant threat to the Southeast to little development. The proximity of the two systems may complicate forecasts and affect development.
Overall, the path and intensity remain uncertain due to model divergence, but the current consensus leans strongly toward recurvature away from major U.S. land impacts, and it is too early to determine specific effects on Florida or other U.S. areas.
NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
Peak hurricane season was September 10 according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.
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