Invest 98L Projected Path Off Florida, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, August 11, 2024, due to the presence of Invest 98L, which may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days over the Caribbean and then stay well off of the Florida east coast.

Invest 98L (marked with a red “X”) is a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, that is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms which is showing some signs of organization.

NHC forecasters say that gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while Invest 98L approaches, and then moves near or over, the Leeward Islands. 

Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches will likely be required for portions of the area as soon as this afternoon.  

The system could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle of the week.

Invest 98L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and an 80% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 98L Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement that Invest 98L will move west-northwest towards the Greater Antilles.

However, there is a large spread between the models after the system moves near or over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic with most models showing a turn back out over the open Atlantic toward Bermuda, while some other models bring Invest 98L towards the Turks and Caicos Islands before turning north.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Ernesto.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, the beginning of August is when tropical storm and hurricane activity begins to pick up, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.