Thunderstorms, Heavy Rainfall for Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida

TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts widespread showers and thunderstorms across west-central and southwest Florida today, Thursday, October 1, 2026, with rain chances of 60–70% for most locations and the highest coverage during the afternoon and early evening.

Moisture has increased across the region, supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Precipitable water values favor a typical early-October pattern of afternoon and evening storms, with coverage expected to remain elevated Friday through Sunday.

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Radar Loop for West Central and Southwest Florida

A few showers may develop during the morning, especially near the coast, before coverage increases this afternoon and evening. Rain chances are 60–70% across much of the area, including Tampa, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Brooksville, and Crystal River.

Stronger storms can produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas. Overall impacts remain limited.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms continue Friday through Sunday as the daily sea-breeze pattern persists. Humidity stays elevated with highs mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to low 90s (Chiefland 91°F, Crystal River 90°F, Brooksville 90°F, Tampa 89°F, Lakeland 89°F, Sarasota 89°F, Arcadia 88°F, Sebring 87°F, Fort Myers 87°F). Conditions will feel humid where sunshine breaks through between storms.

Rain chances today are 60% near Chiefland, Lakeland, and Sebring, and 70% near Crystal River, Brooksville, Tampa, Sarasota, Arcadia, and Fort Myers.

Tampa Weather Forecast