Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain for Tampa Bay, Southwest Florida Through the Weekend

TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts scattered showers and thunderstorms across west-central and southwest Florida today, Saturday, October 3, 2026, with rain chances of 50–70% and the highest coverage during the afternoon and early evening.

Abundant moisture supports scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend under a persistent summer-like pattern.

Storm coverage and rain totals are expected to increase early next week as a frontal boundary stalls over the region, with heavy rain and flooding possible.

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Radar Loop for West Central and Southwest Florida

A few showers may develop during the morning, especially near the coast, before coverage increases this afternoon and evening.

Rain chances range from 50% near Chiefland, Sarasota, Arcadia, and Sebring to 70% near Crystal River and Brooksville, with 60% near Tampa, Lakeland, and Fort Myers.

Stronger storms can produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas. Overall impacts remain limited through the weekend.

Scattered showers and storms continue Sunday as the daily sea-breeze pattern persists. Humidity stays elevated with highs mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s. Coverage becomes more numerous to widespread early next week.

High temperatures today will range from the mid-80s to around 90 (Chiefland 86°F, Crystal River 87°F, Brooksville 89°F, Tampa 88°F, Lakeland 88°F, Sarasota 89°F, Arcadia 90°F, Sebring 89°F, Fort Myers 90°F). Conditions will feel humid where sunshine breaks through between storms.

Rain chances today are 50% near Chiefland, Sarasota, Arcadia, and Sebring; 60% near Tampa, Lakeland, and Fort Myers; and 70% near Crystal River and Brooksville.

Tampa Weather Forecast