Thunderstorms, Heavy Rainfall for Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida Tuesday

Published by

FLORIDA WORD

September 22, 2026 7:59 am

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Rain and Temperature forecast for West Central Florida and Southwest Florida Tuesday, September 22, 2026

TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts scattered showers and thunderstorms across west-central and southwest Florida today, Tuesday, September 22, 2026, as weak east-to-southeast flow and deep tropical moisture keep a typical late-September pattern in place.

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Radar Loop for West Central and Southwest Florida

A few showers may drift into Southwest Florida during the morning from activity over the southeastern Gulf. Coverage then increases this afternoon and evening, with the highest rain chances south of I-4. The Nature Coast stays relatively drier with only isolated showers under slightly more stable conditions.

Stronger storms can produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas. Activity diminishes overnight.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to around 91°F (Chiefland 91°F, Crystal River 90°F, Brooksville 91°F, Tampa 90°F, Lakeland 90°F, Sarasota 90°F, Arcadia 90°F, Sebring 89°F, Fort Myers 89°F). Heat index values are expected around 97° to 100°F.

Rain chances today range from 30% near Chiefland and Crystal River to 40% near Brooksville, Tampa, and Sarasota, 50% near Lakeland and Arcadia, and 60% near Sebring and Fort Myers.

Tampa Weather Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, then scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and evening. High near 90. Heat index values as high as 97-100. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation 40% in the Tampa area, higher south of I-4. Rainfall generally less than a tenth of an inch except locally higher in storms.

Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Partly cloudy. Low around 76. Light and variable wind becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation 30%.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, then scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High near 90-91. Heat index values as high as 100. Light wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 30-50%.

Wednesday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Partly cloudy. Low around 75-76. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation 30-50%.

Thursday

Mostly sunny with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High near 91. Northeast wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 20-30%.

Thursday Night

Isolated showers and thunderstorms early, then mostly clear. Low around 74. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation 20-30%.

Published by

FLORIDA WORD

September 22, 2026 7:59 am