Thunderstorms, Heavy Rainfall For Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida

TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Tampa Bay region and Southwest Florida today, Thursday, September 3, 2026.

The active rainy pattern continues through the week and into Labor Day under abundant tropical moisture, with high pressure holding over the region and an upper trough off the East Coast helping feed extra moisture across the peninsula.

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Radar Loop for West Central Florida and Southwest Florida

High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region (Chiefland near 90°F; Crystal River near 90°F; Brooksville near 90°F; Tampa near 90°F; Lakeland near 91°F; Sarasota near 90°F; Sebring near 89°F; Arcadia near 91°F; Fort Myers near 90°F). Heat index values may reach 100–105 degrees.

National Weather Service Tampa Bay graphic showing high temperatures and rain chances for West Central and Southwest Florida. Issued September 3, 2026 3:11 AM EDT.

Rain chances today are generally 60–80% across the area (Chiefland near 80%; Crystal River near 80%; Brooksville near 80%; Tampa near 80%; Lakeland near 80%; Sarasota near 60%; Sebring near 80%; Arcadia near 70%; Fort Myers near 70%).

Isolated showers are possible this morning, with more numerous to widespread storms developing inland this afternoon and spreading toward the west coast later. Coverage is highest in the afternoon and evening.

Precipitable water values near 2.3 inches remain very high even by Florida standards. That moisture, combined with daytime heating, will support numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through much of the week.

Easterly flow today will keep the west-coast sea breeze closer to the shoreline, with storms typically forming inland and moving toward the coast and Gulf later.

Some of the stronger storms could contain gusty winds of 40–50 mph and frequent lightning. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible and could cause flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas.

A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall remains in effect for parts of West Central and Southwest Florida.

Tampa Weather Forecast

Today
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. High near 90. Heat index values as high as 102. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible, except higher amounts in thunderstorms.

Tonight
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear. Low around 76. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Mostly sunny. High near 92. Heat index values as high as 103. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear. Low around 76. Light south southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday
Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny. High near 92. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then isolated showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Partly cloudy. Low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny. High near 92. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Labor Day
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 90. Chance of precipitation is 80%.