Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain, Hail for Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida

TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts increasing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across west Central and Southwest Florida today, Saturday, September 19, 2026, as an upper-level low moves across the central peninsula.

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Radar Loop for West Central and Southwest Florida

An upper-level low and associated cold air aloft will enhance instability today. High pressure keeps the Nature Coast mostly drier, while scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms develop from the Tampa Bay area southward, with the highest coverage expected across inland and southwest Florida.

Storms will generally form over the eastern peninsula and shift west. A few stronger storms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, hail, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out during mid-to-late afternoon. Activity diminishes overnight.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to low 90s (Tampa area around 91°F, Chiefland, Arcadia, and Crystal River/Brooksville area 90-91°F, Sarasota and Fort Myers 90°F, Lakeland and Sebring 89°F). Heat index values are expected around 97° to 100°F.

Rain chances today range from 20% near Chiefland to 50% near Crystal River and Sarasota, 60% near Tampa, Brooksville, Lakeland, Arcadia, and Fort Myers, and 70% near Sebring.

Tampa Weather Forecast