TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts increasing rain and thunderstorm chances across west-central and southwest Florida today, Tuesday, September 29, 2026, with the highest coverage over Southwest Florida. [caption id="attachment_12364" align="aligncenter" width="960"] National Weather Service Tampa Bay Rain and Temperature forecast for West Central Florida and Southwest Florida Tuesday, September 29, 2026[/caption] A weak front lifting north from the Florida Straits is spreading tropical moisture back into the region. Precipitable water values near 1.7–2.0 inches over Southwest Florida support a typical late-September shower pattern today, with moisture and storm coverage expected to increase further later this week. National Weather Service Tampa Bay Radar Loop for West Central and Southwest Florida A few showers may drift into Southwest Florida during the morning from activity over the southeastern Gulf. Coverage then increases this afternoon and evening, with the highest rain chances generally south of I-4. Fort Myers is near 60% and Sarasota near 50%, while much of the Nature Coast and areas north of I-4 stay relatively drier with isolated showers under slightly more stable air. Stronger storms can produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become more widespread Wednesday through Friday as moisture builds to 2+ inches and afternoon sea-breeze storms become the daily pattern. Warmer temperatures and higher humidity are also expected through the remainder of the week. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 80s (Chiefland 88°F, Crystal River 88°F, Brooksville 88°F, Tampa 88°F, Lakeland 87°F, Sarasota 86°F, Arcadia 87°F, Sebring 86°F, Fort Myers 85°F). Conditions will feel humid, especially where sunshine breaks through. Rain chances today range from 10–20% near Crystal River, Brooksville, Lakeland, and Sebring to 20% near Chiefland and Tampa, 40% near Arcadia, 50% near Sarasota, and 60% near Fort Myers. Tampa Weather Forecast Today Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. High near 88. Light south to southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation about 20% in the Tampa area, higher south of I-4. Rainfall generally less than a tenth of an inch except locally higher in storms. Tonight Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low around 72. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wednesday Partly sunny, then scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. High near 88. East-southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 30–50%, increasing later in the day. Wednesday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening. Mostly cloudy. Low around 73. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation 60%. Thursday Partly sunny, then showers likely with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. High near 89. East-southeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70%. Increasing humidity. Thursday Night Showers likely, mainly in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Low around 75. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 60%. Friday Partly sunny, then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High near 90. Southeast wind 8 to 10 mph with gusts up to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation 80%. Friday Night Showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Low around 75. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80%.