Thunderstorms for Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida

TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts scattered showers and thunderstorms across west-central and southwest Florida today, Wednesday, September 23, 2026.

A light east-to-northeast flow and lingering tropical moisture support a typical late-September pattern for one more day before drier Fall air arrives.

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Radar Loop for West Central and Southwest Florida

A few showers may drift into Southwest Florida during the morning from activity over the southeastern Gulf. Coverage then increases this afternoon and evening, with the highest rain chances generally south of I-4.

The Nature Coast stays relatively drier with isolated to scattered showers under slightly more stable conditions.

Stronger storms can produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas.

Activity diminishes overnight as a weak front approaches from the north Thursday.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to around 91°F (Chiefland 91°F, Crystal River 90°F, Brooksville 91°F, Tampa 91°F, Lakeland 90°F, Sarasota 90°F, Arcadia 91°F, Sebring 89°F, Fort Myers 90°F). Heat index values are expected around 97° to 102°F.

Rain chances today range from 40% near Chiefland and Crystal River to 50% near Brooksville, Tampa, Lakeland, and Arcadia, and 60% near Sarasota, Sebring, and Fort Myers.

Tampa Weather Forecast