Thunderstorms, 50 MPH Wind Gusts, Hail for Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida

TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across west Central and Southwest Florida today, Monday, September 21, 2026, as an upper-level low remains over the central peninsula.

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Radar Loop for West Central and Southwest Florida

An upper-level low and associated cold air aloft will enhance instability today. The Nature Coast stays relatively drier under slightly more stable conditions, while scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms develop from the Tampa Bay area southward, with the highest coverage expected across inland and southwest Florida.

Storms will generally form over the eastern peninsula and shift west. A few stronger storms could produce damaging wind gusts of 50+ mph, frequent lightning, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas.

An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out during mid-to-late afternoon. Activity diminishes overnight.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to around 90 (Tampa area around 90°F, Chiefland and Brooksville 90°F, Crystal River 89°F, Sarasota and Arcadia 90°F, Lakeland 89°F, Fort Myers 89°F, Sebring 88°F). Heat index values are expected around 97° to 100°F.

Rain chances today range from 40% near Chiefland, Crystal River, and Brooksville to 50% near Sarasota, and 60% near Tampa, Lakeland, Arcadia, Sebring, and Fort Myers.

Tampa Weather Forecast