NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Gonzalo Projected Path
MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Cape Verde Time (5 a.m. EDT) on Friday, September 25, 2026, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Gonzalo (formerly Invest AL90 / AL072026).
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cabo Verde Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 12 hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Cabo Verde Islands today and continue through tonight.
Tropical Storm Gonzalo is located near latitude 14.2° North and longitude 22.4° West in the far eastern tropical Atlantic, about 140 miles (225 km) east-southeast of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.
Gonzalo is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days, with a slower forward speed this weekend. On the official NHC forecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight, then turn more northward and stall north of the islands as a weakening remnant low.
Some strengthening is possible today. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin this weekend. NHC expects Gonzalo to become a post-tropical remnant low in about two to three days and remain a remnant low through day 5.
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are clustered on a north-northwest track toward and just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, then a slower northward drift over the far eastern Atlantic. The official NHC track forecast lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and GDMI aids.
Most solutions, including GDMN, AVNO, CMC, NVGM, UKX, AEMN, and HWRF, keep Gonzalo near or just west of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight before lifting it north. A few regional models (HFSB, HMON) are farther east, closer to the coast of Mauritania. Even with that spread, the guidance does not take Gonzalo into the central tropical Atlantic or toward the Caribbean and the United States.
Global model-simulated satellite imagery shows Gonzalo losing organized deep convection in about two to three days as shear increases and waters cool, consistent with NHC’s remnant-low forecast.
Tropical Storm Gonzalo has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
Gonzalo remains an asymmetric tropical storm, with wind shear displacing the deep convection over the eastern and southern portions of the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS are around 35-40 kt. Given earlier scatterometer data showing 40 kt and a steady satellite appearance, NHC held the initial intensity at 40 kt (45 mph).
Gonzalo has about 12 to 18 hours in a marginally conducive environment, with sea-surface temperatures near 27-28°C. After that, increasing shear, cooling waters, and drier mid-level air should start a weakening trend. NHC forecast positions call for 50 mph winds through about 24 hours, 40 mph by 36 hours, a 35 mph depression by 48 hours, and a remnant low thereafter.
Heavy rain from Gonzalo could affect the eastern islands of Cabo Verde and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau and Senegal today through Saturday. NHC expects rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches (30 to 75 mm) across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands today and Saturday, with less than 1 inch on the western side of the island chain. Flash flooding is possible along the western coast of Africa, with isolated flash-flood concerns on the eastern islands of Cabo Verde.
NOAA forecasts a “below-normal” 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
Peak hurricane season is typically mid-September. Hurricane and tropical storm activity remains possible through the rest of September and October and typically tapers as the season progresses toward November 30, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.
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