NOAA: Tropical Storm Fay Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a Public Advisory at 3 p.m. GMT (11 a.m. Atlantic Standard Time) on Thursday, September 24, 2026, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Fay (AL06 / AL062026).

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Fay Projected Path

Tropical Storm Fay is located near latitude 29.8° North and longitude 41.2° West in the central Atlantic, about 990 miles (1,590 km) west-southwest of the Azores.

Fay is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days while the storm is steered along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north. The official NHC forecast track keeps Fay over open water through dissipation on Sunday.

Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Friday. NHC forecasts Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday and dissipate by Sunday.

Tropical Storm Fay Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, remain clustered on a slow westward track over the central Atlantic. The official NHC forecast (OFCL) sits in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Most deterministic and ensemble solutions, including GDMI, GDMN, HFSA, HFAI, HFBI, NGX2, and NVGM, keep Fay moving generally west with only modest latitude change. A few members (HCCA, CMI/CMCI) are faster and farther west. Some ensemble tracks (TVCN, AEMI, AEMN, RVCN, CEM2) show more looping or a slight northward bend before turning west again. UKX members are on the southern side of the envelope.

Even with that longer-range spread, the entire suite keeps Fay over open water. None of the guidance brings the system toward the Azores, Bermuda, the Caribbean, or the U.S. East Coast before it weakens into a remnant low and dissipates this weekend.

The official NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the skilled HFIP HCCA and GDMI tropical cyclone ensemble mean.

Tropical Storm Fay Strength

Tropical Storm Fay has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Resilient Fay strengthened this morning. Deep convective curved bands have developed on both the west and east sides of the cyclone, and a small burst of cold-top convection is persisting over the surface center. Based on the improved cloud pattern and higher Dvorak estimates from TAFB, NHC raised the initial intensity to 45 kt (50 mph).

Fay remains over warm ocean waters in a favorable upper-level wind environment. A relatively stable, dry surrounding atmosphere is the main factor limiting significant strengthening. By the weekend, increasing deep-layer shear should induce a weakening trend.

NHC forecast positions call for 60 mph winds at 12 hours, 50 mph at 24 hours, 45 mph at 36 hours, then a 35 mph post-tropical remnant low at 48 and 60 hours, with dissipation by 72 hours (Sunday).

NOAA forecasts a “below-normal” 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Peak hurricane season is typically mid-September. Hurricane and tropical storm activity remains possible through the rest of September and October and typically tapers as the season progresses toward November 30, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.