National Weather Service Miami Rain Chances map for South Florida on Wednesday, September 23, 2026
MIAMI, Florida – The National Weather Service in Miami forecasts another wet day across South Florida on Wednesday, September 23, 2026, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially along the east coast metro. Rain chances peak near 90% in Miami and 87% in Fort Lauderdale.
NWS Miami South Florida Doppler Radar
Moist southerly flow continues to hold deep tropical moisture in place, with precipitable water values near 2.1–2.4 inches, above the 90th percentile for late September.
Rain chances stay elevated through Friday before falling this weekend as drier air begins to work in from the north.
A mid-level trough over the Gulf is helping support today’s activity, while daily heating and a pinned Atlantic sea breeze keep the setup favorable for repeated rounds of storms, especially from Broward through Miami-Dade.
Soils remain saturated after several days of showers and storms. Official rainfall at Miami International Airport reached 0.95 inches on Sunday, 0.08 inches on Monday, and 0.05 inches on Tuesday. Additional localized heavier totals across the east coast metros keep the urban flood threat elevated.
NWS Miami reported ponding on roadways across metro Miami-Dade and Broward after heavy rainfall early this morning and warned that flooding can start more quickly than usual because of the antecedent rain.
Morning coverage has already included quick-moving showers into southeastern Miami-Dade. The best additional storm chances still favor this afternoon into early evening.
Mean rainfall is generally about a half inch to 1 inch in many spots today, but slow storm motion and efficient downpours can still produce much higher totals in a short time.
Official guidance points to the highest probabilities and the greatest flood concern along the east coast metro from West Palm Beach through Homestead and Flamingo.
Primary hazards include frequent lightning, gusty winds, reduced visibility in heavier cores, and localized heavy downpours. Urban and poor-drainage flooding remains the main concern, especially in neighborhoods already hit hard this week. Extra caution is warranted on wet roadways during the morning commute and again this afternoon.
The Weather Prediction Center kept much of South Florida in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall today. Isolated higher totals remain possible if storms train over the same neighborhoods along the east coast metro.
Heat risk continues today — High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s across most of South Florida, with forecast highs near 86°F in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach and near 88°F in Naples.
Peak heat index values will range from about 97°F to 105°F, with the highest readings expected near Immokalee at 105°F; La Belle, Naples, and Everglades City at 103°F; Buckhead Ridge at 102°F; Miami at 100°F; Belle Glade, Homestead, and Flamingo at 99°F; Fort Lauderdale at 98°F; and West Palm Beach at 97°F. Clouds and storms should keep values from climbing higher in spots that see afternoon convection.
Today (Wednesday): Showers and thunderstorms, with the highest coverage along the east coast metro this afternoon and early evening. Partly sunny between storms, with a high near 86–88. Heat index values as high as 97–105. Light south winds 5–10 mph. Chance of precipitation is about 87–90% in Miami and Fort Lauderdale, 73% in West Palm Beach, and 57–73% inland and along the southwest coast.
Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the evening, then decreasing coverage after midnight. Mostly cloudy and humid, with a low around 75–78. Light west winds. Chance of precipitation is 50–70%.
Thursday: A drying trend begins as flow turns more northerly and precipitable water values fall closer to average inland. Showers and thunderstorms still possible, especially over Southeast Florida, with daytime probabilities near 60–70% there and 30–50% across the lake region and much of Southwest Florida. High near 88–89. Localized flooding is not expected to be a widespread concern Thursday.
Thursday Night: Showers likely with thunderstorms, especially in the evening. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75–78. Light northwest to west winds. Chance of precipitation is 50–70%.
Friday: The wet pattern eases further as drier air works in from the north. Rain chances remain highest over far southern Florida, with lower coverage near Lake Okeechobee. High near 88–89. South Florida stays humid, but the daily flood threat should continue to diminish into the weekend.
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