National Weather Service Miami South Florida Rainfall Accumulation Forecast – Tuesday, September 22, 2026 through Friday, September 25, 2026
MIAMI, Florida – The National Weather Service in Miami forecasts another wet day across South Florida on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon and early evening.
Moist southerly flow continues to hold deep tropical moisture in place, with precipitable water values near 2.1–2.4 inches, above the 90th percentile for late September.
Rain chances stay elevated through the rest of the week as that moisture lingers over the peninsula. A weakening mid-level low is being absorbed into broader upper-level flow, but daily heating, sea-breeze boundaries, and a pinned Atlantic sea breeze keep the setup favorable for repeated rounds of storms.
Soils remain saturated after daily rounds of showers and storms. Official rainfall at Miami International Airport reached 0.95 inches on Sunday and another 0.08 inches on Monday.
Additional localized heavier totals across the east coast metros in recent days keep the urban flood threat elevated if storms stall or train over the same neighborhoods today.
NWS Miami warned this morning that more rounds of heavy rainfall, combined with antecedent rain, could pose a flooding risk for portions of southeast Florida. The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in place today and Wednesday. Localized amounts of 5–7 inches remain possible along the east coast metro if storms train over the same areas.
Morning coverage should stay more isolated, with the best storm chances building this afternoon into early evening.
Mean rainfall is generally about a half inch to 1 inch in many spots today, but slow storm motion and efficient downpours can still produce much higher totals in a short time. Official three-day liquid precipitation through Friday morning is generally 1.1–1.3 inches across the east coast metros, with higher amounts toward Homestead, Flamingo, and the Upper Keys.
Primary hazards include frequent lightning, gusty winds, and localized heavy downpours. Urban and poor-drainage flooding remains the main concern, especially in spots already hit hard this week.
The Weather Prediction Center kept the South Florida metro in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall today and Wednesday. Isolated totals of 5–7 inches remain possible if storms train over the same neighborhoods.
Rain chances (Tuesday, September 22, 2026):
Heat risk continues today — High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s across most of South Florida, with forecast highs near 87–88°F in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach.
Peak heat index values will range from about 98°F to 105°F, with the highest readings expected near Immokalee at 105°F; La Belle at 103°F; Buckhead Ridge, Naples, Everglades City, and Fort Lauderdale at 102°F; Miami at 101°F; West Palm Beach and Belle Glade at 100°F; Homestead at 99°F; and Flamingo near 98°F. Clouds and storms should keep values from climbing higher in some inland areas that see afternoon convection.
Today (Tuesday): A chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon and early evening. Partly sunny between storms, with a high near 87–88. Heat index values as high as 98–105. Light south winds 5–10 mph. Chance of precipitation is about 70–80% in the east metro and 67–84% inland and along the southwest coast.
Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Mostly cloudy and humid, with a low around 75–78. Light south winds. Chance of precipitation is 50–70%.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, with daytime probabilities of 80–90% in many areas. Some storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 86–88. Urban flooding will remain a concern if storms repeatedly train over the same neighborhoods. Heat index values again near 100.
Wednesday Night: Showers likely with thunderstorms, especially in the evening. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75–78. Light southeast winds. Chance of precipitation is 50–70%.
Thursday: Rain chances remain elevated, with showers and thunderstorms likely at times and daytime probabilities near 70–80%. High near 88. The wet pattern begins to ease late in the week as drier air tries to work in from the north, but South Florida stays unsettled.
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