Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds For Tampa Bay, Southwest Florida

Published by

FLORIDA WORD

July 2, 2026 7:30 am

National Weather Service Rain Chances for Florida Florida on Thursday, July 2, 2026

TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Tampa Bay region and Southwest Florida today, Thursday, July 2, 2026.

A light easterly flow combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze will trigger scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, with the best chance of rain south of the I-4 corridor.

Storms are expected mainly this afternoon and evening. Stronger storms could produce gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas. Activity will diminish overnight, leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies.

National Weather Service Tampa Rain Chances and Temperatures for West Central Florida Thursday, July 2, 2026

High temperatures today will range from the low-to-mid 90s across the region (Tampa area around 93°F, up to 95°F near Chiefland). Heat index values are expected between 100° and 107°F.

Rain chances are lowest in the Nature Coast (10–20%) and increase southward, reaching 50% in the Tampa/Lakeland area, 60–70% near Sarasota and Fort Myers, and up to 80% near Arcadia/Sebring.

National Weather Service Tampa Radar Loop for West Central and Southwest Florida.

Tampa Weather Forecast

Today

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 103. East northeast wind around 6 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. East southeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 104. Light and variable wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Independence Day

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming south southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 79. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.

Monday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.

Tuesday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 80.

Published by

FLORIDA WORD

July 2, 2026 7:30 am