Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain For Tampa Bay, Southwest Florida
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FLORIDA WORD
July 5, 2026 7:35 am
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National Weather Service Rain Chances for Florida Florida on Sunday, July 5, 2026
TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Tampa Bay region and Southwest Florida today, Sunday, July 5, 2026.
A light easterly flow combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze will trigger scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, with the best chance of rain near the coast during the morning and across the interior in the afternoon.
National Weather Service Tampa Bay graphic showing high temperatures and rain chances for West Central and Southwest Florida. Issued July 5, 2026.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible. Stronger storms could produce gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas. Activity will diminish overnight, leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies.
High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s across the region (Tampa area around 93°F, up to 93°F near Chiefland). Heat index values are expected between 100° and 106°F.
Rain chances are lowest in the Nature Coast (around 40%), 50% in the Tampa area, and 60% near Lakeland, Sebring, and Arcadia, with 40% near Sarasota and Fort Myers.
Tampa Weather Forecast
Today
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 9am and 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 104. Calm wind becoming south southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then isolated showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 104. South wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 80. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night
Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 80. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday
Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 80. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Thursday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 81.
Friday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny and hot, with a high near 95.
