TALLAHASSEE, Florida – In the Northern Gulf of America and near the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of America are associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough. Surface observations indicate that pressures are high in the area, and there are currently no signs of a surface circulation. However, NHC forecasters say that some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northward, bringing heavy rain to portions of the Florida west coast and Florida Panhandle during the next several days. There is a 30% chance of tropical development within the next 7 days, and a 10% chance of development within the next 48 hours. Heavy rain across the eastern and northern Gulf Coast states, possibly bringing flash flooding, will be the primary hazards to watch into early next week, according to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee. A Heat Advisory is currently in effect for portions of the area due to heat index values potentially reaching 105°F or higher. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Some storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Primary hazards include gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours. Isolated flash flooding and ponding of water on roadways are possible. Lightning remains a concern with all thunderstorms. On a positive note, beneficial rainfall is expected with the storms today, helping to ease ongoing dry conditions. A return to a more typical summertime pattern begins tomorrow. National Weather Service Tallahassee Radar Loop Areas at risk for thunderstorms and possible locally heavy rainfall today include: Marianna Perry Tallahassee Broader Florida Panhandle, western Big Bend, SE Alabama, and SW Georgia TALLAHASSEE WEATHER FORECAST Today Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 105. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Calm wind. Sunday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 102. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Sunday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Monday Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. High near 90. Light and variable wind becoming south southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Night Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. High near 91. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Thursday Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 60%.