Severe Thunderstorms, Heat Advisory For Tampa Bay, Southwest Florida

TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Tampa Bay region and Southwest Florida today, Saturday, July 11, 2026.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of West Central and Southwest Florida. Stronger storms could produce gusty to damaging winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible. Stronger storms could produce gusty/damaging winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas. Activity will diminish overnight, leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies.

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Radar Loop for West Central and Southwest Florida

High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 90s across the region (Tampa area around 96°F, with readings up to 97°F near Chiefland). Heat index values are expected between 100° and 110°F, with a Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT.

Rain chances are around 30% in the Nature Coast (Chiefland, Crystal River, and Brooksville), 30–40% across the Tampa Bay area, and up to 50% near Lakeland, Sebring, and Arcadia.

Tampa Weather Forecast

Today (Saturday, July 11)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 96°F. Heat index values as high as 106–108°F. Calm wind becoming south around 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30–50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms early, then partly cloudy. Low around 79–80°F. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30–50% early, then decreasing.

Sunday, July 12

Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95°F. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 80°F. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm.

Monday, July 13

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95°F. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms early, then partly cloudy. Low around 79°F. Chance of precipitation is 30%.