TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Tampa Bay region and Southwest Florida today, Friday, July 10, 2026. According to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center, there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts of West Central and Southwest Florida. The primary threats are damaging wind gusts and small hail. Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today – Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for parts of West Central and Southwest Florida. Primary threats: damaging wind gusts and lightning. Graphic issued by NWS Tampa Bay. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible. Stronger storms could produce gusty/damaging winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall that may cause flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas. Activity will diminish overnight, leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies. National Weather Service Tampa Bay Radar Loop for West Central and Southwest Florida A light flow combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze will trigger scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The best chance of rain will be across interior and southern areas this afternoon. National Weather Service Tampa Bay graphic showing high temperatures and rain chances for West Central and Southwest Florida. Issued July 10, 2026.. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 90s across the region (Tampa area around 99°F, with readings up to 99°F near Chiefland and Tampa). Heat index values are expected between 100° and 110°F, with a Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT. Rain chances are lowest in the Nature Coast (around 10% near Chiefland, Crystal River, and Brooksville), 30–40% across the Tampa Bay area, Lakeland, and Sebring, 50% near Sarasota and Arcadia, and highest at 70% near Fort Myers. Tampa Weather Forecast Today (Friday, July 10) Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99°F. Heat index values as high as 107°F. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30–50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms early, then partly cloudy. Low around 79–80°F. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30–50% early, then decreasing. Saturday, July 11 Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 96°F. Heat index values as high as 106°F. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night Scattered showers and thunderstorms early, then partly cloudy. Low around 80°F. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Sunday, July 12 Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95°F. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 80°F. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Monday, July 13 Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95°F. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night Scattered showers and thunderstorms early, then partly cloudy. Low around 79°F. Chance of precipitation is 30%.