Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain for Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida

TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing by mid-afternoon today, Sunday, May 17, 2026, and continuing through after sunset this evening across west central and southwest Florida.

According to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center, there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) that some of these storms could become severe, with damaging wind gusts and small hail the biggest threats.

High temperatures will climb into the low-to-mid 90s with heat index values as high as 98 possible. Moisture will remain elevated into Monday, with a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across the southern and interior portions of the region.

Weather Outlook

The National Weather Service (NWS) Tampa Bay has issued updated forecast maps showing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening with a marginal risk of severe weather.

The potential hazards include damaging wind gusts, small hail, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

The forecast covers areas such as Tampa, St. Petersburg, Sarasota, Fort Myers, and northward toward the Nature Coast. Highest temperatures today will be in the interior; rain chances will be highest during the afternoon and evening hours.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become scattered to numerous during the afternoon and evening hours today.