Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain for Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida

TAMPA BAY, Florida – The National Weather Service Tampa Bay forecasts scattered to numerous mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms developing today, Tuesday, May 26, 2026, across west central and southwest Florida. Best chances for rain will be across the central and northern portions of the region, especially around Crystal River (60%), Lakeland (60%), and Brooksville (50%).

High temperatures will reach the low-to-mid 90s across much of the area (92°–94° in most locations) with heat index values as high as 98 possible.

Moisture will remain elevated into Wednesday and beyond, with a continued chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at almost any hour plus locally heavy rainfall possible.

Weather Outlook

The National Weather Service (NWS) Tampa Bay has issued an updated forecast of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening.

The potential hazards include gusty winds, small hail, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

The forecast covers areas such as Tampa, St. Petersburg, Sarasota, Fort Myers, and northward toward the Nature Coast. Highest temperatures today will be in the interior; rain chances will be highest during the afternoon and evening hours, especially across the central and northern portions of the region.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become scattered to numerous during the afternoon and evening hours today.

Tampa Weather Forecast