Thunderstorms, Flooding, Heavy Rain For North Florida

JACKSONVILLE, Florida – The National Weather Service in Jacksonville is forecasting continued hot, humid, and unsettled summer-like conditions across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia through at least Tuesday night.

According to NWS Jacksonville, the probability of rainfall causing flash or urban flooding remains elevated today due to tropical moisture, already saturated ground from recent rains, and the potential for training thunderstorms.

• Today (Sunday): Localized Flood Risk along and north of I-10 and near the Atlantic Coast, especially Sunday afternoon and evening. Expected rainfall 0.5–1.5 inches, with locally higher amounts of 2–4 inches possible in heavier downpours. Flooding of urban & poor drainage areas and locations already saturated from the last few days is possible.
• Sunday through Tuesday night: Daily downpours and strong storms likely. Expected additional rainfall amounts of 1–3 inches widespread, with a high-end potential of 5–6 inches in training or repeated thunderstorms. Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across much of the area, with locally higher probabilities north of I-10 and near the coast.

According to NWS Jacksonville, summer-like conditions will dominate with daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms, elevated heat indices, and the potential for gusty winds in stronger storms.

Key hazards this period include:

• Daily afternoon/evening thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall (1–3+ inches additional through Tuesday night, localized 5–6+ inches possible in training storms) and gusts up to 40-45 mph in stronger cells, especially near and north of I-10
• Urban, poor drainage, and low-lying area flooding possible due to saturated ground and heavy downpours — slick roads and caution on wet roads advised
• Heat indices of 95°–105°F inland (peak heat midday through early evening) with high temperatures in the mid-80s
• Lightning safety critical – seek shelter in a building or hard-topped vehicle at the first sign of thunder or lightning

NWS Jacksonville forecastd warm and rainy conditions with high chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms are possible, particularly north of I-10 and near the coast.

Tropical moisture is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of widespread 1–3+ inches through Tuesday night (localized higher amounts in training storms). While the rain benefits wildfire suppression, long-term drought persists and burn bans remain in effect for many counties.

With the ground saturated in many areas from recent heavy rain, even brief intense downpours this afternoon and evening could cause temporary urban and localized flooding. Motorists should exercise caution on slick roads.

Beachgoers should remain cautious of elevated surf and possible rip currents at Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia beaches including St. Simons, Jekyll, Fernandina, Jacksonville, St. Augustine, and Flagler. Follow local beach patrol guidance.

North Florida and southeast Georgia locations expecting daily thunderstorms and elevated heat this period include: Gainesville, Ocala, Lake City, Starke, Palatka, Jacksonville (inland areas), Waycross, Brunswick, and Homerville.

Jacksonville Weather Forecast