
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook for Florida on Sunday, May 10, 2026.
JACKSONVILLE, Florida – The National Weather Service in Jacksonville is forecasting isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening along the First Coast of northeast Florida, driven by a stationary front and interacting seabreezes.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly this mid-afternoon through early evening (roughly 1:30 PM to 6:30 PM), focused along the First Coast from Jacksonville to Palm Coast.
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville is alerting residents of the storm risk today. Heat indices will reach 85-90°F north of I-10 and 90-95°F south of I-10, creating muggy conditions. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph.
According to NWS Jacksonville, stronger storms may develop with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible across northeast Florida, especially along the First Coast as Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes interact with the stationary front.
Stronger storms on Sunday may produce:
Ongoing extreme to exceptional drought conditions continue across the region. The storms are expected to bring widespread beneficial rainfall, providing needed moisture amid the drought. Residents should practice wildfire prevention measures given the dry conditions and ongoing fire activity.
Northeast Florida areas at highest risk for thunderstorms include:
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a high near 83°F. South winds 5-15 mph. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and early evening, especially along the First Coast. Chance of precipitation 50%. Hazards include damaging winds (40-60 mph), frequent lightning, locally heavy downpours, small hail, and a small chance of a brief tornado.
Sunday Night
Showers likely then chance of showers and patchy fog. Low around 68°F. South wind 5-10 mph becoming light.
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