Severe Thunderstorm Risk For North Florida

JACKSONVILLE, Florida – The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a weather alert for North Florida and southeast Georgia on Sunday, February 15, 2026, due to a Level 2/5 (Slight) risk of isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along a cold front, with potential progression toward inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley in northeast Florida by Sunday afternoon and evening.

According to NWS Jacksonville, isolated thunderstorms may become strong-to-severe, particularly inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley.

Stronger storms may produce:

• Gusty winds (40-60 mph)
• Small hail
• A brief isolated tornado
• Heavy downpours

Additionally, high wildfire danger is expected on Sunday due to gusty winds and extreme drought conditions. Practice wildfire prevention measures.

North Florida areas at risk for thunderstorms include:

• Jacksonville
• Saint Augustine
• Lake City
• Gainesville
• Ocala

Jacksonville Weather Forecast

Sunday
Isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms possible late afternoon and evening, with a high near 71°F. Chance of precipitation is high, with storms expected 5 PM – 4 AM Monday. Hazards include gusty winds, small hail, heavy rain, and a slight tornado risk, especially from afternoon through evening.

Sunday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely to taper off late, with a low around 53°F. Beneficial rainfall expected across most areas.

The NWS Jacksonville forecast indicates beneficial rainfall accumulation is expected with these storms, providing needed moisture after recent dry conditions, while the primary concern remains wind and hail.