MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued an Intermediate Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, October 23, 2025, for Tropical Storm Melissa, which strengthened from Invest 98L earlier this week while moving westward over the central Caribbean Sea. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince and for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Interests in the Dominican Republic and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as additional watches could be required later today or tonight. NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Melissa Projected Path Tropical Storm Melissa is located about 215 miles (345 km) southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 275 miles (440 km) southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti and is moving to the northwest at 5 mph (7 km/h). NHC forecasters say that a slow northwest or north motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn over the weekend. On the official NHC forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Melissa Computer Models [caption id="attachment_9717" align="aligncenter" width="1080"] Tropical Storm Melissa 2025 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models[/caption] Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show a significant spread in the deterministic guidance and ensemble solutions due to the complex steering pattern and continued model differences in the predicted vertical depth of Melissa. In general, Melissa is likely to inch northward during the next 36 to 48 hours as the storm is influenced by a weakness in the subtropical ridge. By late Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build eastward to the north of the storm, inducing a slow westward or west-northwestward motion over the weekend. By early next week, that ridge is expected to move away as a large-scale trough amplifies over the eastern U.S., causing Melissa to begin to gain more latitude again by the end of the forecast period. Melissa is likely to move slowly and remain in the vicinity of Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba for several days. There is considerable uncertainty in the track beyond the next couple of days. Recent trends indicate uncertainty on how close the core will get to Haiti and Jamaica, potentially reducing the chance of direct landfall but still posing risks of heavy rain and coastal impacts. The official NHC forecast track is shifted a little to the right of the previous one, trending toward a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) and the HCCA solution. Tropical Storm Melissa Strength [caption id="attachment_9715" align="aligncenter" width="897"] NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Arrival Time[/caption] Tropical Storm Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, but significant strengthening is expected by late Friday and over the weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. [caption id="attachment_8226" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.[/caption] The peak of hurricane season occurs in September and early October, with historical data from NOAA and the National Weather Service showing increased tropical storm and hurricane activity during this period.