NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook for October 21, 2025.
MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, October 21, 2025, due to the presence of Invest 98L located over the central Caribbean Sea.
If Invest 98L develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane List is Melissa.
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea appears to be developing a well-defined center, and is already producing winds up to 45 mph.
A tropical storm is expected to form later today while it slows down over the central Caribbean Sea.
Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next day or two.
Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Invest 98L as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week.
A U.S.. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today.
This system has a near 100% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a near 100% chance within the next 7 days.
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show the system moving generally westward to west-northwestward, with many tracks passing near or over Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands.
There is divergence in the longer-term forecasts, with some models indicating a turn to the north or northeast toward the Bahamas or Florida, while others suggest a continued westward path into Central America or the Yucatan Peninsula.
The models vary in intensity, but favorable conditions could allow for strengthening to tropical storm or hurricane status.
Despite the trends, forecasts remain uncertain until a well-defined center forms.
NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
Peak hurricane season was September 10 according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.
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