NOAA: Hurricane Melissa Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

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FLORIDA WORD

October 25, 2025 2:25 pm

000 WTNT43 KNHC 261459 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 After rapidly intensifying over the past day or so, NOAA-P3 aircraft data indicates that Melissa's intensity has leveled off this morning. Melissa remains a very formidable hurricane on satellite imagery, with a clearing eye quite evident on morning visible imagery, and the eye temperature has warmed to +15-20C. Meanwhile the eyewall convection continues to remain robust with cloud tops as low as -75 to -80C encircling the core. With that said, the eye presentation from the Kingston, Jamaica radar is not as pristine, with the eyewall occasionally open on the east side, and some evidence of concentric bands forming off and on. Zooming out a bit, there still remains some evidence of light to moderate westerly shear undercutting the expanding storm outflow, and Melissa’s primarily rainbands are distributed mostly on the eastern side of the circulation. NOAA-P3 aircraft data this morning had a peak 700- mb flight level wind of 120 kt, and Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) wind retrievals were up to 129 kt at 0.5 km, and 129 kt in the 500 m average of a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall. While this data would support a somewhat lower intensity, the subjective and objective satellite based intensity estimates are mostly higher, ranging from 115 to 140 kt. The initial intensity will be held at 120 kt, on the lower end of those estimates, and this value could be a little generous based on the aircraft data. The major hurricane is moving westward this morning, from aircraft fixes estimated at 270/3 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24-36 h as a narrow mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa imparts the majority of the steering. Thereafter, a short-wave trough moving into the southeastern United States is expected to erode this ridge, allowing Melissa to turn sharply to the northeast, with gradual acceleration. On the forecast track, Melissa's core is expected to be near the Jamaica coastline by Tuesday morning, moving across the island and then approaching and moving over eastern Cuba by Tuesday night. While the track guidance has become tightly clustered over the first 24-48 hours, the along-track spread starts to increase significantly after that time period, with Google DeepMind ensemble solutions on Wednesday morning ranging from between Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, over eastern Cuba, or in the Southwestern Atlantic near the Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Cacaos Islands. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged just a little westward of the prior track, once again blending the reliable track aids HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). It is unclear if the current pause in Melissa's intensification is temporary. While there have not been obvious indications of a secondary eyewall formation yet, there are some concentric reflectivity bands appearing on both Jamaica and NOAA-P3 TDR data occasionally, though the inner eyewall remains strong. Some of the guidance this morning has actually increased from yesterday at this time, and notably both the HAFS-A/B explicitly forecast a Category 5 hurricane shortly before they show landfall in Jamaica. The latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a peak intensity of 140 kt. However, inner-core fluctuations like eyewall replacement cycles could occur at any time. Regardless, Melissa is forecast to reach Jamaica as an upper-end category 4 hurricane, which will only exacerbate any damages caused by heavy rainfall and flooding over the next 2 days. Melissa will likely weaken some as it traverses over the higher terrain of Jamaica, but it is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it subsequently moves over eastern Cuba in 60-72 hours. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear should cause gradual weakening, but Melissa could still be near hurricane intensity when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda in about 5 days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the intensity guidance, but not far off the GDMI, and HAFS-A/B intensity aids. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning. 2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday. 3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the country. 4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.4N 76.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 19.2N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 20.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center issued an Intermediate Advisory at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, October 25, 2025, for Hurricane Melissa, which strengthened from Invest 98L earlier this week while moving westward over the central Caribbean Sea.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system as watches could be required for portions of eastern Cuba later today.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Melissa Projected Path

Hurricane Melissa is located about 145 miles (230 km) southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 235 miles (380 km) southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti and is moving to the west-northwest at 1 mph (2 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a slow west-northwestward or westward motion is expected today through the end of the weekend. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Hurricane Melissa Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show higher than usual spread in the next 12-36 hours, with AI models like Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) and ECMWF-AI (AIFS) on the south and western end, while traditional dynamical aids (ECMWF European model, HAFS-A/B) show more of a west-northwestward drift towards Jamaica over the next 24-36 hours.

Nearly all reliable track guidance (discounting the GFS American model which has been an eastward outlier) shows Melissa making landfall in Jamaica sometime in the 60-72 hour time frame. During this time, a digging mid-latitude trough in the southeastern United States is expected to create a new weakness to the north of Melissa, resulting in the cyclone taking a sharp turn to the northeast.

While the guidance is in good agreement on this general turn with relatively small across-track spread, there remains high along-track spread, best highlighted by the Google DeepMind ensemble which shows a spread in possible locations in 96 h from still inland over Jamaica to northeast of Cuba in the southwestern Atlantic.

There is considerable uncertainty in the track beyond the next couple of days. Recent trends indicate uncertainty on how close the core will get to Haiti and Jamaica, potentially reducing the chance of direct landfall but still posing risks of heavy rain and coastal impacts.

The official NHC forecast track is a touch south of the prior track for the first 24-48 hours, but converges on the prior track forecast thereafter. This is a little on the eastern side of the track guidance envelope, giving credence to the AI model solutions (GDMI, ECAI) which have been the best performing track guidance this hurricane season.

Hurricane Melissa Strength

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Melissa 2025 Wind Arrival Time

Hurricane Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts.

Rapid intensification is forecast to occur over the next couple of days and Melissa is forecast to become a major hurricane by Sunday.

NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

The peak of hurricane season occurs in September and early October, with historical data from NOAA and the National Weather Service showing increased tropical storm and hurricane activity during this period.

Published by

FLORIDA WORD

October 25, 2025 2:25 pm