NOAA: Category 5 Hurricane Melissa Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center issued a Bulletin at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, October 28, 2025, for Hurricane Melissa, which strengthened from Invest 98L earlier this week while moving westward over the central Caribbean Sea.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas, and the southeastern and central Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti, the Cuban province of Camaguey, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches could be required later today or tonight.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Melissa Projected Path

Hurricane Melissa is located about 40 miles (60 km) southeast of Negril Jamaica and about 235 miles (380 km) southwest of Guantanamo Cuba and is moving to the north-northeast at 9 mph (15 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the core of the tropical cyclone is expected to make landfall on Jamaica during the next couple of hours, move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.

Hurricane Melissa Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show the storm moving northeast from Jamaica through eastern Cuba and the Bahamas toward Bermuda, with reduced spread compared to earlier forecasts.

The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 36 hours and a little north of the previous track after that time.

Guidance indicates a faster motion toward the northeast after landfall in Jamaica, bringing the center through the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday night.

After passing Bermuda, the cyclone should continue quickly northeastward into the north Atlantic.

Hurricane Melissa Strength

Hurricane Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h), with higher gusts.

Little change in strength is expected before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it will still be a strong hurricane when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. Steady weakening is expected after leaving Cuba due to increasing southwesterly vertical shear.

NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

The peak of hurricane season occurs in September and early October, with historical data from NOAA and the National Weather Service showing increased tropical storm and hurricane activity during this period.