NOAA: Category 4 Hurricane Melissa Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, October 26, 2025, for Hurricane Melissa, which strengthened from Invest 98L earlier this week into a Category 4 hurricane while slowly moving westward over the central Caribbean Sea.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince, and the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as additional watches and warnings could be required later today.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Melissa Projected Path

Hurricane Melissa is located about 110 miles (180 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica and about 280 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba and is moving to the west at 3 mph (6 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the core of the tropical cyclone is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Hurricane Melissa Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show tightly clustered guidance over the first 24-48 hours, with the along-track spread increasing significantly after that time period. AI models like the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) show a range of possible locations on Wednesday morning from between Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, over eastern Cuba, or in the southwestern Atlantic near the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands.

The track guidance has become tightly clustered over the first 24-48 hours. A short-wave trough moving into the southeastern United States is expected to erode the current steering ridge, allowing Melissa to turn sharply to the northeast with gradual acceleration.

While the guidance is in good agreement on the general turn, there remains high along-track spread, highlighted by the Google DeepMind ensemble.

There is considerable uncertainty in the track beyond the next couple of days, particularly regarding the timing and exact path over Jamaica and Cuba.

The official NHC forecast track was nudged a little westward of the prior track, blending the reliable track aids HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI).

Hurricane Melissa Strength

Hurricane Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h), with higher gusts.

Additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and Melissa is forecast to become a category 5 hurricane. Fluctuations in intensity are possible due to inner-core changes like eyewall replacement cycles.

NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

The peak of hurricane season occurs in September and early October, with historical data from NOAA and the National Weather Service showing increased tropical storm and hurricane activity during this period.