NOAA: 30% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Over Caribbean

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 PM Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, October 17, 2025, due to the presence of two systems in the Atlantic, including one that may develop over the Caribbean.

The system (marked with a yellow shaded area east of the Windward Islands) continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands.

This system is expected to move generally westward at 15 to 20 mph over the next several days, with gradual development possible, but heavy rainfall and gusty winds anticipated across portions of the Windward Islands late this weekend and then across the Caribbean Sea much of next week.

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next several days.

This system has a 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a 30% chance within the next 7 days.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane List is Melissa.

In addition to this system, the NHC is monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure well off the coast of the Northeast United States, with a slight chance that the system could develop some subtropical characteristics during the weekend before it turns northeastward over cooler waters by early next week.

This system has a 10% chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a 10% chance over 7 days.

NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

We are now past the peak of hurricane season on September 10, but hurricane and tropical storm activity can continue well into October, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.